Many big high street names began 2026 with a continuing gloomy outlook reminiscent of Eeyore seeking his lost tail. Primark, the doyen of the fast fashion sector issued a profit warning and saw an 11% fall in parent ABF shares. Tesco, still our leading grocer, saw shares fade by more than 5% in the light of barely inflation levels of growth in the last quarter. M&S faired a little better over Christmas, but their growth was fuelled entirely by retail food sales whilst their fashion, home and beauty categories all fell. Even the 2,700+ Greggs outlets put in a lacklustre performance resulting in a 10% slump in share price.
You’d be forgiven for assuming that garden centres areexperiencing a similar trend, especially if you believe the UK media. The preoccupation of journalists to focus on negative economic news is depressing. They characterise the ‘cost of living crisis’ as a national emergency affecting all families and pensioners resulting in widespread hardship and a corresponding depression across the entire retail landscape. From what I’ve seen over the last quarter, it looks like most of those families and pensioners visiting garden centres are just not listening!
I spent much of the run up to Christmas touring the garden retailers of Yorkshire where, frankly, I sensed a very different vibe with centres bustling, car parks overflowing and long queues for coffee and mince pies. Early this month at a regular networking event, several prominent garden retailers reported double digit growth in the final quarter thanks to buoyant Christmas sales, continuing growth in restaurants and encouraging upturns in clothing, gifts and food halls. 2026 has apparently begun with buoyant demand for seeds, bulbs and hardy stock too, despite the weather.
Garden Centres are clearly doing much better than many other retail and hospitality sectors; I believe largely thanks to their focus on the customer experience and consequential lengthy dwell times. As one successful retailer said this week, ‘If I can get them through the door and focus on the retail theatre, I know they will spend’. The extraordinary Christmas displays, not to mention grottos, pop up food stalls, wreath making workshops, fairgrounds, ice rinks and circus events laid on by garden centres this year are clear evidence for the success of this strategy. The energy and sheer exuberance in garden centres feel like the absolute antithesis of the gloomy high street.
Definitely more Tigger than Eeyore!